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My Favorite Signs of a Near Market Peak

So maybe the market has not peaked yet, but these are indicators I have seen across market cycles that seem to correlate well with the peak. I’ve tried to append new articles / headlines relevant to each.

  1. Tallest building in the world is under construction – Saudi Arabia just announced plans to build a $500 billion mega-city that’s 33 times the size of New York City – Normally a new world’s tallest building is a good indicator of a market top, but maybe this beats even that?
  2. New can’t lose asset class has everyone involved – Obviously crypto-currency
  3. Art auctions at Sotheby’s / Christies are at new high – Hodinkee – Paul Newman’s Rolex Daytona Sells For $17,752,500, Becoming The World’s Most Expensive Wristwatch Ever Sold
  4. GMO starts having to lay off employees due to bad performance – WSJ – Magic Eludes Bubble-Caller Jeremy Grantham, as Assets at GMODrop by More Than $40 Billion.  Investor Jeremy Grantham’s money management firm is cutting its workforce amid client defections.
  5. Sheiks start buying assets in your non-coastal town – Buyer from Bahrain pays $100M for Nashville office building
  6. “This time is different” – Grantham says higher valuations will persist
  7. The can’t lose magazine cover – see Economist “Bull Market in Everything” https://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21730019-ultra-loose-monetary-policy-coming-end-it-best-tread-carefully-asset-prices-are
  8. PE Funds raising new rounds quickly and above target size – Bloomberg – Why Private Equity Has $963 Billion in Dry Powder
  9. New top industry destination for Harvard MBA graduates
  10. New creative valuation technique to justify higher than typical traditional measures 

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